The Trump Administration has advertised a goal concerning the control of oil prices, which have skyrocketed since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, after the joint Israeli American attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. President Trump insisted that if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, it would attack its power plants, to which the Islamic Republic stated it would do the same to the water and infrastructure of nearby Gulf states. This standstill is currently undergoing negotiations, during which many countries are seeking to mediate the opening of the Strait, given its global impact on supply chains and costs, particularly in markets for natural gas, fertilizer, helium, semiconductors, and other commodities.
If negotiations were to fail, a land invasion of Kharg Island—vital for controlling the Strait—could result. This, along with U.S. regime change objectives in Iran, increases the risk of sanctions on countries purchasing Iranian crude, including India, Pakistan, and Thailand. Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have diverted ships to eastern African routes, such as Lamu and Mombasa Ports in Kenya, creating new logistical opportunities and offering refuge to carrier ships avoiding the Middle East crisis.
