Becker Spotlight: Welcome to Washington 2026
Congress and the Trump Administration are kicking off 2026 with a packed agenda ranging from averting another shutdown, reviving defunct healthcare subsidies, securing new trade deals, and managing geopolitical tensions. All of this comes against the backdrop of the November 2026 midterm elections which could divide control of Washington between the Republican White House and a Democratic Congress in 2027.
The following provides an outlook of those items in the year ahead.
Government Shutdown 2.0…?
Most of the federal government has been funded on a limited basis through January 30th after lawmakers passed a stopgap deal last November, thus ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. But, another appropriations package must be passed by the end of the month to avert another government shutdown.
In that effort, this week congressional appropriators made significant headway to fund the federal government on a long-term basis after releasing a bipartisan, bicameral spending package that covers Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy and Water, and Interior-Environment programs. The House will take up that “minibus” package later this week and then send it to the Senate for their approval.
However, a similar deal has yet to be announced on the remaining appropriations bills that would fund the Departments of Defense, Labor, Homeland Security, Transportation, Housing & Urban Development, Health & Human Services, and Education.
Restoring Affordable Care Act Subsidies
Congress has begun deliberating several bills to extend COVID-era enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies which expired last December and played a significant role in the 2025 government shutdown.
House Republicans hoping to counter Democratic messaging on the subsidies passed a bill of health care reforms in December, but leaders have promised that they are not finished and will craft more health care reforms early this year. That bill, the “Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act,” includes funds to pay for “cost-sharing reductions,” reforms to the pharmacy benefit manager industry, and an expansion of association health plans, however that bill did not include other popular reforms, such as expanding access to health savings accounts or similar programs.
Other bipartisan proposals being negotiated would extend ACA subsidies anywhere from two to three years, while increasing the family income threshold to anywhere between 400-700% of the poverty level (all up from the previous 400% threshold). Other legislation such as the “Save American Healthcare Act” would fund extended ACA subsidies with tariff revenue.
Trade Wars & Geopolitical Tensions
Trade policy will remain a major theme this year under the Trump administration. The Supreme Court is expected rule on the legality of President Trump’s sweeping imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which could significantly tilt the balance of power from the White House to Congress on trade issues and potentially result in billions of dollars in repayments, should the administration lose.
The President views tariffs as a dual-use tool—both as leverage to attract investment and as a source of federal revenue—while critics emphasize their inflationary impact on consumers and manufacturers. China is a focal point of those tensions and has responded to domestic economic weakness by exporting heavily subsidized goods supported by an artificially weak currency.
At the same time, the U.S-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement with Canada and Mexico comes up for review this year, which will reopen debates over supply chains, labor standards, and market access.
All this comes amid the United States’ in-country arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, who have since been moved to New York to be indicted on narco-trafficking charges. The administration based the quasi-military-law enforcement operation on national security concerns, and says that the U.S. will have some sort of control over the Latin American nation until such time that a democratically elected government is sworn in.
While most global leaders have previously denounced the Maduro regime as illegitimate and oppressive, the Trump administration’s actions have raised domestic political concerns about entangling the U.S. in more foreign conflicts.
Trump’s Washington & Economy
President Trump has drastically reshaped the federal government in his image during his second term, from instituting mass firings of federal workers to shuttering billions of dollars’ worth of funding programs. Much of that has been met with ongoing legal action, but one of the most anticipated rulings this year is the Supreme Court’s decision on whether the President can unilaterally fire members of independent agencies like the FTC, the FCC, and the Federal Reserve.
After taking office last year, President Trump fired Biden-appointee FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter at-will. His administration is requesting the Supreme Court to overturn its 90-year-old Humphrey’s Executor decision which requires a “for cause” showing for such firings. Following oral arguments last year, many legal experts believe that the Court will side with the President. Such a decision would give President Trump – and any future president – expansive authority over independent agencies regulating a range of issues including antitrust policy, broadcast licenses, consumer safety, and interest rates.
This comes amid the end of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term in the post this May, at which time President Trump is likely to nominate a new candidate more aligned with his goal of cutting interest rates. The President has previously criticized Chair Powell over his hesitation to cut rates which the Fed has since done, albeit slightly.
The President is likely to tout any future rate cuts under a new Fed Chair, along with the rollout of his “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax law, as positive credit for his handling of the economy heading into the November midterms.
2026 Midterm Elections
As with most midterms, the upcoming November elections will serve as a referendum on the administration’s policies and potentially chip away at the reigning party’s congressional majorities.
Even in their first two days back in session, however, House Republicans saw their majority narrow with the resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA) and the unexpected death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (CA). While those vacancies are expected to be filled by Republicans before the midterms, they could still complicate House Republican’ election year legislative agenda in the interim.
Republicans currently maintain a slim 218-213 House majority, and a 53-47 Senate majority (with two Independents caucusing with Senate Democrats). In midterms’ past, House majorities tend to flip away from the President’s party, and most pollsters believe the same will happen this year to give Democrats control of the Chamber in 2027 with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) as the party’s likely choice for House Speaker.
However, recent partisan gerrymandered congressional maps adopted and/or being redrawn in both Republican- and Democratic-led states could complicate that electoral math, especially as some newly approved maps are challenged in court.
