Becker Spotlight: Comprehensive Analysis: Florida Primary Election Results

Executive Summary:
Florida’s August 18, 2026, primary election completely reshaped the state’s political landscape. Driven by newly redrawn mid-decade congressional maps passed by the Republican legislature, which shifted the state’s boundaries to create four more red-leaning seats, both parties saw immense factional battles.

The night’s biggest headlines included a monumental progressive upset in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, the fall of a prominent Republican incumbent in Central Florida, and definitive resolutions in the marquee gubernatorial primaries.

Headline Statewide Races:

Governor:

• Republican Primary: Byron Donalds secured a dominant victory, claiming 47.9% of the vote. Backed by an endorsement from Donald Trump, Donalds easily defeated Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (25.1%) and James Fishback (10.4%). He positions himself to potentially become Florida’s first Black governor.
• Democratic Primary: David Jolly, the former Republican congressman turned Democrat, won decisively with 61% of the vote, beating Dayna Foster (15%) and Dotie Joseph (10%).

U.S. Senate (Special Election):

• Democratic Primary: In a historic and massive upset, progressive State Rep. Angie Nixon defeated the heavily favored, establishment-backed former national security official Alexander Vindman. Despite Vindman outraising her by a 16-to-1 margin, Nixon won 56% to 44%. She becomes the first Black woman to win a major party U.S. Senate nomination in Florida.
• Republican Primary: Incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody easily secured her nomination with 80% of the vote, brushing aside minor primary challenges to lock in her November slot.

Congressional Primary Breakdown Analysis & Winners:

Congressional District 1 (Panhandle)

• Democratic Primary: Canceled; Gay Valimont automatically advanced.
• Republican Primary: Jimmy Patronis successfully defended the seat, fending off primary challenges from Douglas Chico and John Frankman to capture the nomination.
• Analysis: With a massive campaign finance advantage, Patronis consolidated the Panhandle’s conservative base to command the primary in this deep-red enclave.
• Winners: Jimmy Patronis (R) & Gay Valimont (D)

Congressional District 2 (North Florida / Big Bend)

• Democratic Primary: Amanda Green won a tight 4-way primary with 33.4% of the vote over Yen Bailey (28.1%), Brice Barnes (26.9%), and Nicholas Zateslo (11.6%).
• Republican Primary: Austin Rogers won a highly competitive, 8-candidate primary field with 30.3% of the vote over Keith Gross (16.5%), Evan Power (15.9%), and Luke Murphy (15.6%).
• Analysis: Left open following the retirement of Republican Rep. Neal Dunn, this seat saw significant fracturing in both party primaries. Rogers leveraged a localized plurality to lock up the nomination for November.
• Winners: Austin Rogers (R) & Amanda Green (D)

Congressional District 3 (North-Central / Gainesville & Ocala)

• Democratic Primary: Contested primary features Troy Albers, Seth Harp, George Hubac, and Tom Wells. Seth Harp won with 45.2%.
• Republican Primary: Canceled; Incumbent Kat Cammack advanced automatically.
• Analysis: Cammack enters the general cycle with completely unified structural backing from the GOP, holding a firm advantage in a district configured as a safe conservative baseline.
• Winners: Kat Cammack (R) & Seth Harp (D)

Congressional District 4 (Northeast Florida / Jacksonville Suburbs)

• Democratic Primary: Contested primary features LaShonda Holloway, Michael Kirwan, and Brittney Robinson. LaShonda Holloway won with 57.3%.
• Republican Primary: Canceled; Incumbent Aaron Bean advanced automatically.
• Analysis: Bean completely side-stepped primary trouble by drawing zero intra-party opposition, preserving his significant war chest for the general election.
• Winners: Aaron Bean (R) & LaShonda Holloway (D)

Congressional District 5 (Jacksonville to St. Augustine)

• Democratic Primary: Contested primary features Rachel Grage, Alexander Hazen, and Mark Heggestad. Rachel Grage won with 65.1%.
• Republican Primary: Incumbent John Rutherford successfully secured his nomination, turning away a primary challenge from Mark Kaye.
• Analysis: Rutherford’s long-standing regional name recognition easily buffered him from a fringe challenge, allowing him to seamlessly shift his campaign layout to focus on November.
• Winners: John Rutherford (R) & Rachel Grage (D)

Congressional District 6 (East-Central Coast / Daytona Beach)

• Democratic Primary: Contested primary features Robert Cooper II, Steve Morgan, Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera, and Eric Yonce. Eric Yonce won with 32.1%
• Republican Primary: Incumbent Randy Fine won convincingly with 57.6% of the vote over internet personality Daniel Bilzerian (18.9%), Aaron Baker (13.6%), and Charles Gambaro (9.8%).
• Analysis: Despite an expensive and highly visible anti-establishment challenge from Bilzerian, Fine leveraged a robust structural ground game and key state endorsements to handily retain his seat.
• Winners: Randy Fine (R) & Eric Yonce (D)

Congressional District 7 (Central Florida)

• Republican Primary: In the evening’s most stunning congressional casualty, incumbent Republican Representative Cory Mills was unseated. Facing simultaneous Department of Justice and House Ethics Committee investigations, Mills could not survive the onslaught of controversies. Former local television news anchor Ryan Elijah swept the nomination with 47.1% of the vote over Mills’ 34.2%.
• Democratic Primary: On the Democratic ticket, Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton secured the nomination, easily beating out progressive former Congressman Alan Grayson.
• Analysis: Elijah will enter November as the heavy favorite to win the general election in this red-leaning seat.
• Winners: Ryan Elijah (R) & Bale Dalton (D)

Congressional District 8 (Space Coast)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Mike Haridolopolos is expected to be reelected in this Solidly Republican district.

Congressional District 9 (Orlando / South Central Florida)

• Republican Primary: At writing, the Republican primary has not been called. Navy veteran Dan Green leads South Florida Water Management District board member Ben Butler 25.4% vs. 24.4% with 95% of the vote in.
• Democratic Primary: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Darren Soto secured renomination and will advance to the general election
• Analysis: Of the four Florida congressional seats Republicans are targeting this cycle, the 9th District represents their strongest pickup opportunity. The redrawn district, stretching from Orlando deep into south central Florida, voted for Donald Trump by 18 points in 2024 and seven points in 2020, placing Soto in a particularly challenging political environment. With the race currently rated Likely Republican, the eventual GOP nominee will enter November with a clear structural advantage.
• Winners: Darren Soto (D) & Republican Primary Pending (Dan Green currently leading)

Congressional District 10 (Orlando)

• Democratic incumbent Congressman Maxwell Frost is expected to be reelected in this solidly Democratic district.

Congressional District 11 (Orlando Suburbs) – The race to replace Rep. Daniel Webster

• Republican Primary: At writing, the Republican primary has not been called. Air conditioning company owner Joe Strada leads Carey Baker 33.49% vs. 33.01%% with 95% of the vote in.
• Democratic Primary: In a three-way Democratic contest, James Pericola secured the nomination with 46.4% of the vote, defeating Royal Webster and Dan Williams.
• Analysis: With the race currently rated Likely Republican, the eventual GOP nominee will enter the general election with a clear advantage. However, the extremely close Republican primary result could delay the party’s ability to fully pivot toward November while Pericola begins consolidating Democratic support.
• Winners: James Pericola (D) & Republican Primary Pending (Joe Strada currently leading)

Congressional District 12 (Pasco and Northern Hillsborough Counties)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Gus Bilirakis is expected to be reelected in this Solidly Republican district.

Congressional District 13 (Pinellas County and parts of Pasco County)

• Democratic Primary: A three-way Democratic primary featured Leela Gray, Brandt Robinson, and John William Liccione. Leela Gray secured the nomination in commanding fashion, winning approximately 65% of the vote.
• Republican Primary: Incumbent Anna Paulina Luna faced no opposition for the Republican nomination and advanced directly to the general election.
• Analysis: Gray’s decisive primary victory gives Democrats a clear standard-bearer heading into November, but she faces an uphill battle against Luna, a two-term incumbent with strong name recognition and an established fundraising network in a district that has leaned Republican in recent federal elections. Luna enters the general election as the favorite, though Democrats hope Gray’s military leadership background and broad institutional support will help make the race competitive.
• Winners: Anna Paulina Luna (R) & Leela Gray (D)

Congressional District 14 (Tampa/Hillsborough County)

• Democratic Primary: Incumbent Kathy Castor was unopposed in the Democratic primary and advanced directly to the general election.
• Republican Primary: A crowded Republican field competed for the nomination, with Mike Beltran emerging as the winner with approximately 45.6% of the vote, defeating Kevin Steele and several other candidates.
• Analysis: The GOP primary was one of the more competitive congressional contests in the state, reflecting Republican interest in challenging Kathy Castor following recent redistricting changes. While Beltran successfully consolidated enough support to win a fragmented field, he now faces a well-established incumbent with deep roots in the Tampa area. The race is expected to draw significant attention as Republicans target the seat and Democrats look to maintain their hold on the district.
• Winners: Kathy Castor (D) & Mike Beltran (R)

Congressional District 15 (Eastern Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk Counties)

• Republican incumbent Congresswoman Laurel Lee is expected to be reelected in this Solidly Republican district.

Congressional District 16 (Manatee County and portions of surrounding Gulf Coast communities)

• Democratic Primary: A five-candidate Democratic primary featured Kelly Kirschner, Jon Harris, Tamika Lyles, Glenn Pearson, and Jan Schneider. Kelly Kirschner emerged victorious with approximately 43% of the vote, securing the Democratic nomination.
• Republican Primary: Republican voters chose between Sydney Gruters, Ed Pope, and Eddie Speir. Sydney Gruters won decisively, capturing roughly 63.5% of the vote and advancing to the general election.
• Analysis: Gruters, who is the wife of RNC Chair Joe Gruters, enters the general election with a significant advantage in a district that election analysts have characterized as strongly Republican. While Kirschner successfully navigated a crowded Democratic field, the district’s recent redistricting and Republican lean provide Gruters with a favorable political environment heading into November. Independent candidate Mark Davis has also qualified for the general election ballot.
• Winners: Sydney Gruters (R) & Kelly Kirschner (D)

Congressional District 17 (Southwest Florida)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Greg Steube is expected to be reelected in this Solidly Republican district.

Congressional District 18 (Lakeland and Central Florida)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Scott Franklin is expected to be reelected in this Solidly Republican district.

Congressional District 19 (Southwest Florida)

• Republican Primary: Left open by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial run, this safely Republican seat drew a crowded field. High-profile candidates like former North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn and Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf entered the fray. However, local favorite Jim Schwartzel captured the nomination with 29.1% of the vote, holding off Lauf (22.0%) and consolidating the district’s reliable conservative base.
• Democratic Primary: A three-way Democratic primary featured Victor Arias, Howard Sapp, and Robert Neeld. Victor Arias secured the nomination in commanding fashion, winning approximately 45.5% of the vote.
• Analysis: Despite the competitive Republican primary, Congressional District 19 remains one of the most reliably Republican seats in Florida. Schwartzel’s ability to defeat several well-known candidates demonstrates strong local support, and he enters November as the overwhelming favorite to hold the seat for Republicans.
• Winners: Jim Schwartzel (R) & Victor Arias (D)

Congressional District 20 (South Florida / Broward County)

• Democratic Primary: Veteran Democratic incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz was forced to run in heavily redrawn territory that shifted into a predominantly Black district, drawing intense local criticism. She faced a fractured field of prominent Black leaders, including former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Dale Holness. Wasserman Schultz’s institutional support held firm, allowing her to advance with 45% of the vote over Holness (23%).
• Republican Primary: Brent Andersen secured the nomination with 54% of the vote.
• Analysis: The Democratic primary proved to be one of the more closely watched contests in South Florida due to the district’s redrawn demographics and the high-profile field challenging Wasserman Schultz. Despite questions about her viability in the new configuration, the incumbent successfully leveraged her established network and name recognition to advance. Andersen emerged from the Republican primary with a decisive victory, but Democrats remain favored in the district.
• Winners: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) & Brent Andersen (R)

Congressional District 21 (Treasure Coast and Northern Palm Beach County)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Brian Mast is expected to be reelected in this Republican-leaning district.

Congressional District 22 (South Florida Coast)

• Democratic Primary: Pia Dandiya delivered a decisive victory in the Democratic primary, defeating Kaysia Earley by a 69% to 31% margin and securing her party’s nomination.
• Republican Primary: Casey Askar emerged from a crowded seven-candidate Republican field, winning with 31% of the vote. Askar finished ahead of Michael Carbonara (19%) and Belinda Keiser (18%) in a fragmented contest.
• Analysis: One of Florida’s more competitive coastal districts, CD-22 experienced significant political realignment under the new congressional boundaries. Dandiya’s commanding primary performance demonstrated strong Democratic consolidation, while Askar successfully navigated a chaotic Republican field to claim the nomination with a plurality. The district is expected to remain highly competitive heading into the general election.
• Winners: Pia Dandiya (D) & Casey Askar (R)

Congressional District 23 (Palm Beach County)

• Democratic incumbent Congresswoman Lois Frankel is expected to be reelected in this solidly Democratic district.

Congressional District 24 (South Florida / Miami Gardens)

• Democratic Primary: A heavyweight Democratic primary unfolded in this heavily Democratic South Florida district. Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert narrowly emerged victorious with 34% of the vote in a closely contested three-way race, edging out state Senator Shevrin Jones (32%) and Kendrick Meek Jr. (17%).
• Republican Primary: Republican Te Mayonna Brown ran uncontested.
• Analysis: The razor-thin margins underscored the competitive nature of the contest and highlighted divisions among key Democratic constituencies. Gilbert’s narrow victory positions him as the favorite heading into November in a district that remains firmly Democratic.
• Winners: Oliver Gilbert (D) & Te Mayonna Brown (R)

Congressional District 25 (South Florida / Gold Coast)

• Democratic Primary: Moderate Democratic incumbent Jared Moskowitz fended off a significant challenge from democratic socialist Oliver Larkin, winning renomination by a comfortable 63.5% to 37% margin.
• Republican Primary: Scott Singer emerged from a bruising five-candidate Republican primary, capturing 31% of the vote to secure the GOP nomination.
• Analysis: Newly redrawn Congressional District 25 is widely viewed as Florida’s most competitive congressional contest and the state’s premier House toss-up. Moskowitz’s decisive primary victory demonstrated resilience against progressive pressure despite a broader leftward trend in some Democratic circles. The general election between Moskowitz and Singer is expected to be one of the most closely watched and heavily contested races in Florida.
• Winners: Jared Moskowitz (D) & Scott Singer (R)

Congressional District 26 (Western Miami-Dade County)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart is expected to be reelected in this Republican-leaning district.

Congressional District 27 (Miami-Dade County)

• Republican Primary: Incumbent Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar showcased her political strength in Miami-Dade County, defeating challenger V. Michael Arias in commanding fashion, 81% to 19%.
• Democratic Primary: Democrats nominated veteran journalist Eliott Rodriguez, who prevailed over Robin Peguero by a 54% to 46% margin.
• Analysis: Salazar’s overwhelming primary victory reinforced her standing as one of South Florida’s most prominent Republican figures. Rodriguez emerged from a competitive Democratic contest to set up what is expected to be a costly and highly visible general election campaign in a district that continues to attract national attention from both parties.
• Winners: Maria Elvira Salazar (R) & Eliott Rodriguez (D)

Congressional District 28 (South Miami-Dade and the Florida Keys)

• Republican incumbent Congressman Carlos Giménez is expected to be reelected in this Republican-leaning district.

Key Takeaways for November

• The DeSantis Redistricting Loom: The newly drawn maps gave the GOP a distinct numerical advantage across the newly designed maps. This will significantly complicate Democratic efforts to flip the U.S. House through Florida.
• A Fractured Democratic Coalition: The simultaneous victory of moderate Jared Moskowitz and the stunning progressive surge of Angie Nixon indicates that Florida Democrats are deeply ideologically divided. Bridging the gap between the establishment and progressive wings will be vital to challenging Senator Moody and Rep. Donalds.
• Controversy Costs Incumbents: Cory Mills’ loss proves that ethical liabilities can break through even standard partisan armor in Florida primaries.